Grading Netflix: Did The Streaming Giant Deliver on Predictions 10 Years Later?

By Max Newfield | October 10, 2024

In 2014, a Netflix executive made five bold predictions on the future of streaming. Let’s find out which came true, and what it means for streaming today.

Anyone who works in streaming likely has a LinkedIn feed full of content trend pieces, pie in the sky revenue projections, and media executives making bold predictions about the future of entertainment.

But how often do any of these claims come to pass? Is it even possible to assess these prophecies at a later date?

Well, today is that day and we’re fact-checking the company that defined this era of film and television: Netflix.

In 2014, Neil Hunt, then-Chief Product Officer at Netflix, gave a fascinating presentation at New York City’s Internet Week about the future of streaming. This occurred about one year after Netflix debuted early streaming juggernaut House of Cards, when it was suddenly clear to both Hollywood execs and home audiences that Netflix was a force to be reckoned with.

Thankfully, Wired ran an extensive breakdown of the five bold predictions Hunt made for what television would look like in 2025. Seeing as how we’re mere months away from 2025… let’s grade those predictions! Read on to take a look into a veritable streaming time capsule.

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Prediction #1: Personalization Will Reign In A Streaming Future.

Hunt correctly identifies that audience needs are not being met by traditional cable and predicts that Netflix’s recommendation engine will present users with, “one or two suggestions that perfectly fit what they want to watch now.”

Analysis: Sort Of!

Personalization is absolutely one of the highest priorities for any streaming company. But a 2023 Nielsen report shows us that streaming audiences are in fact paralyzed by choice. The average search for something to watch takes over 10 minutes, and one out of every five searches is abandoned.

So streaming companies are failing across the board when it comes to delivering on personalization, but it’s not for lack of trying. Netflix has an entire team of engineers and data scientists working on solving the biggest problem in streaming, and companies are tackling the problem beyond just content recommendations.

To be fair to Hunt, this is an incredible undertaking and it’s possible that recent advancements in machine learning could help deliver on this claim. Let’s check back in another 10 years.

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Prediction 2: Streaming Will Usher in a New Era of Creative Freedom

Wired paraphrases Hunt as saying that Netflix personalization efforts will connect audiences to niche content, giving Hollywood creatives the freedom to actually create. Hunt also predicts greater freedom with format as streaming will break down the lines between cinema and television storytelling.

Analysis: Debatable!

Streaming has absolutely changed the format of television shows, with longer episodes strongly encouraged by streaming studios to keep viewers in their app as long as possible. And Netflix has experimented with wild swings in storytelling format, like the interactive movie Black Mirror: Bandersnatch.

But Netflix has also built a reputation for canceling those niche shows, crushing both the dreams and binge watching plans of genre fans. While there are plenty of valid business reasons for canceling those shows, it seems that shows must become an organic hit far sooner than they did during the broadcast era.

Good news for those devoted audiences, though. Streaming proliferation has given rise to the niche streaming service. So while audiences may not get their genre needs served at one of the big streamers, they will find new and exciting content somewhere.

Prediction 3: No More Commercials.

Wired quotes Hunt saying, “The ad-free model seems to be very popular with consumers,” while acknowledging that streaming technology will enable highly targeted ads.

Analysis: Both Absolutely Correct & Completely Wrong at the Same Time

Hunt knocked it out of the park when he said that streaming data could help companies deliver highly targeted ads to viewers. In fact, one would be safe to assume that’s a key component of the business model for some of our largest streamers.

Where Hunt faltered in his prediction is that viewers were passionate about avoiding ads in the first place. As we covered before, AVOD is becoming the dominant form of streaming due in large part to the fact that audiences don’t mind sitting through a few ads in order to get a cheaper monthly subscription price. Even Netflix has shifted their business model to rely on ad-supported plans as the default setting for viewers.

Readers should take it easy on Hunt for this one though. When he made these predictions, the entire industry bought into the promise of ad-free TV. Hunt’s concurrent prediction that viewer data would be incredibly valuable to advertisers likely demonstrates that many streaming execs saw where we were headed all along.

Prediction 4: Live Sports on Netflix

In his presentation, Hunt teased the possibility of sports on Netflix by saying “stay tuned” as the traditional broadcast model adjusts to a streaming future.

Analysis: Nailed It!

Across the board, streamers have gone all-in on live sports. Seemingly every streamer has purchased the right to multiple games from the NFL, NBA, the FIFA World Cup, and beyond. ESPN, Fox, and Warner Bros. Discovery have even banded together to create a super-streamer that corners the sports market.

Netflix entered the sports market with live NFL games on Christmas Day 2024, as well as more autre offerings like WWE matches and a marquee hot dog eating competition.

Sports leagues, as a rule, are big business in television. Netflix and other streamers would love to corner the eyeballs of millions of devoted fans who will follow their team across any platform. Look for this prediction to become even more correct as the years pass.

Prediction 5: Everyone Will Have a Smart TV

Hunt cited a 2014 statistic saying one in every three TVs sold is internet-connected and predicted that number will only go up.

Analysis: Correct

It’s true. Everyone owns a smart TV.

Takeaways

Hunt was right on the money with all of his predictions regarding audience demands: people want hyper personalized recommendations, live sports, and CTV devices that make those things easy to view. Where he faltered was assuming viewers would change their behavior–and their preferences for a bargain–to avoid ads.

So as you make your streaming plans for 2035, keep in mind that as long as you prioritize audience demand you are probably going to be correct. Business model, delivery method, and everything else can be adjusted as long as viewers love your content.

Need some help building that 10-year plan? Speak with a Matchpoint expert today and find out how to scale your business for a better streaming future.

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